Base case anchored in evidence
Start with what is signed, shipped, and scheduled, paired with historical conversion rates and honest lead times. Ask, what would occur if nothing extraordinary happened? This keeps your runway believable and protects essential promises like payroll, taxes, and top suppliers. Confidence grows when reality consistently matches the base, and deviations teach you precisely which operational levers to refine, replacing hunches with disciplined tweaks that compound into stability and durable, compounding cash generation over quarters.